… this little beauty…

If you don’t read this and then say “Run OMG run!!! Oh MY GOD!!!!”, you’re an idiot.

Seriously.

Here goes the verbatim text as of this “disclaimer” — btw I frankly detect a certain Eastern European Mob lilt to the text but perhaps that’s just me (oh, and nota bene, the italics are mine lol):

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Wow.

Simply, wow.

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“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”. — Warren Buffett

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Part of what I do for a living involves investing in stocks and bonds.

Over the last few weeks, and months, I’ve noticed that markets can be mindless. Long a believer in relatively efficient markets, I’m becoming more and more convinced that they would be, if they weren’t peopled by idiots. I do believe, however, that in the long term (ie not a 24 hour news cycle, or a month, or a quarter, or a year, but rather over actual “long terms” of say 5-10 years) I think that markets are reflective of the values being traded.

At the current moment, however, the Mr. Market is being an ass.

The economy cannot possibly be as bad as the main stream media is making out, obviously for the benefit of their anointed candidate. This is a cycle that’s gone on for a long time; in my lifetime, there has been an alleged recession each time that a Republican (after Reagan) has been running for office. Bush I’s recession was illusory; Bush II’s recession in 2004 was also illusory. I believe that we are not in a recession now, although, due to the recent market crash and manipulated oil price shock, we may have a shallow one on our hands over the next couple of quarters. But it will be shallow, and short-lived.

As hedge-funds and massively leveraged investors were forced to unwind their portfolios due to the credit crisis caused by the sub-prime meltdown of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the Federal Reserve failing to “rescue” Lehman Brothers (which in my opinion will go down in history as the biggest dipshit move the Fed ever made, bar none), we are seeing retail investors start (too late) getting into the selling party.

Folks, Potter’s not selling, he’s buying. A recent op-ed piece by Warren Buffett referenced in this blog earlier tells you all you need to know: Valuations of companies are at an insane level — they are on sale to a degree not seen since 1974. If you have any kind of cash, you should do like Buffett, and buy, buy, buy.

If you have a portfolio, make sure it’s rebalanced, and then hang on for dear life. If you sell out, you are locking in your losses. Let others do that. Every single time there’s been a market crash, people with cash, and people who held on (assuming they were diversified into a spectrum of companies and bonds) were rewarded. Every single time. EVERY SINGLE TIME.

One last thought before I head for dinner. Think of it this way:

Let’s say you own a house. You’re planning on living in that house for a long time. Let’s also say that the real estate market is down, like it was in California in the 90′s. Or now, throughout the nation.

You bought your house for $300,000. You look on Zillow, you read the “comps”. According to Mr. Market, your house is now worth $200,000. Would you sell it now, seeing that it’s declined in value by a third?

Of course you wouldn’t.

Because you know that you’re going to be living in your house for a long time. And you also know that real estate prices in the long term always go up. Especially in inflationary times.

And just as you wouldn’t sell your house just because prices are lower at the moment, neither should you sell out of your investments. You don’t need to move out of your “investment house” — so don’t. Hang on, ignore the day to day news, and just bloody wait.

Let the morons sell to Potter.

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Well, the Sage has spoken. Perhaps Sage is the wrong term; perhaps we should start calling him “King of the Pumpers” but what the heck.

At least you’re buying stocks. Of course, you get special deals to buy yours en masse; you can increase a stock’s price just by buying it and letting everyone know you have, but what the hell.

At least someone’s buying again.

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Michelle Malkin once again is railing against government intervention in markets created and overseen by the government who are in crisis due to …. you guessed it, the government control of interest rates, financial regulation, the mortgage market, the tax system, international relations, trade treaties, and everything else that allows the free market to operate.

Naturally, of course, the “bail out” package didn’t result in an instant bull market rising 3000 pts today.

Of course, this is a sure sign that they shouldn’t be doing anything regarding the current crisis.

Is it just me, or are people who should know better just bloviating to hear themselves bloviate? Course, at least I’m willing to admit it. Those who are paid to scream from the rooftops will most likely decline to make such admissions.

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Sort of. Details are still murky, but it looks like Paulson and the Fed now have the tools to unfudge the credit markets. We hope.

In the meantime, the stock market has declined rapidly. What does this mean for investors?

In my opinion, unless you think that the End of the World is nigh, you should sit tight. Although your stocks and mutual funds and ETFs may be lagging what you paid for them, the underlying companies should be just as healthy as they were the week before, by and large. The Hartford didn’t become worth 33% less in one day just because some idiot who runs the majority in the Senate flapped his gums out of turn. Or maybe it did — but you surely don’t have any more than say 1-2% of your portfolio in that stock, right?

If you DO think the world is coming to an end, it’s not going to do you a lot of good to sell and lock in your losses at THIS point, so don’t. If we’re doomed, it’s not going to matter whether you have less money than you did before; after all, we’re doomed, right?

The main problem now with the markets is that typical investors are panicking — in the face of hedge funds selling into any rally that comes along as they try to unwind their tortuous positions. Don’t help them. Breath deep, hang tight, and remember that this economy is so much more incredibly huge, interconnected, and creative by it’s nature than anything they could have imagined in 1929.

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and with no Federal intervention (except what the Feds can do themselves without authorization from our absolutely do nothing Congress).

At least my Congresscritter, McKeon, voted correctly today. Hopefully there will be a revote tonight or something and they will get their shi’ite together.

It’s amazing to me that so many of our so-called representatives no so little about how our financial system works (or doesn’t work) that they would be still playing politics with the situation.

Meanwhile, Ron Paul is sitting there railing about how we need “sound money” — while a LOT of his personal wealth is tied up in the very companies that would gain from a return to some sort of idiotic gold standard.

Talk about a conflict of interest.

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